Strategic Preparation

1. Summary

The Strategic Preparation System is a self-contained strategic gameplay experience embedded within the main campaign. It uses dynamic, probabilistic, and interdependent decision trees.

The system is intended to be implemented through a dedicated program or simulation module responsible for calculating the availability, progression, outcomes, and consequences of strategic operations.

This page defines its principal narrative and gameplay behavior. What it leaves unspecified: See: Canon › Open Questions.

2. Rules

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2.1 Dynamic Decision Trees

The decision system is not a fixed sequence of predetermined choices. Available decisions depend on the evolving state of the preparation phase.

An operation may:

• Open new opportunities.
• Close previously available opportunities.
• Improve the probability of another operation.
• Increase the risk associated with another operation.
• Reveal new information.
• Introduce unexpected costs.
• Create an urgent response requirement.
• Cause military authorities to become suspicious.
• Change the eventual conditions encountered in Brazil.

A player may achieve partial success in one operation while simultaneously creating difficulties elsewhere.

There is no requirement for every operation to have a simple binary success-or-failure result.

2.2 Probabilistic Outcomes

Operations can produce multiple outcomes.

Possible result categories include:

• Major success.
• Ordinary success.
• Partial success.
• No meaningful result.
• Failure without exposure.
• Failure with exposure.
• Success accompanied by negative consequences.

The simulation determines which outcomes are possible and how likely they are based on relevant state variables.

2.3 Operation Interdependence

Strategic actions affect one another.

For example, a successful approach to a retired Brazilian general might yield restricted information, access credentials, or introductions to other contacts. The amount and quality of information obtained may vary between campaigns.

A compromised approach could instead create additional security concerns and reduce the viability of subsequent operations.

The player's earlier decisions therefore influence the decision tree that becomes available later.

2.4 Variable Duration

Operations take different amounts of time.

An intermediary may promise a response within two days but require three or four. Another operation may take five days and finish sooner than expected.

Unexpected delays, requests for additional information, and changes in contact availability should be part of the system's dynamic behavior.

Multiple operations may proceed concurrently when the simulation permits it. The player is not limited to exactly one strategic decision per day.

2.5 Time Advancement Through Sleep

The player can advance the preparation period by resting.

When interacting with the bed during the strategic phase, the player may choose to advance between one and five days. The maximum advancement per selection is five days.

However, a selected five-day rest does not guarantee that all five days will pass uninterrupted. An important event may interrupt the rest.

For example:

• Edmund chooses to advance five days.
• An expected contact responds on the second day.
• Edmund wakes after two days.
• Hamish informs him that the response requires his attention.
• The player can then issue new instructions before advancing further.

This prevents the passage of time from becoming a passive waiting mechanism.

2.6 Inefficiency from Long Time Advances

Advancing several days at once may produce strategic disadvantages.

Some opportunities require a timely response.

If the player elects to advance multiple days without responding to intermediate developments, the simulation may record missed opportunities, unfavorable delays, or a loss of operational flexibility.

Important interruptions may wake Edmund automatically when necessary.

Which events interrupt rest is still to be determined. See: Canon › Open Questions.

2.7 Dynamic Events

External developments may influence the preparation phase independently of the player's direct actions.

Such events can affect contacts, operation availability, financial resources, risk assessments, or the timing of existing commitments.

The objective is to ensure that repeated campaigns do not follow an identical sequence of opportunities and outcomes.

2.8 Mission Account and Financial Simulation

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2.8.1 Initial Balance

The dedicated operational balance starts at:

USD $25,000,000

Funds spent on operations reduce the available balance.

The player's overall family fortune is not directly depleted or simulated.

2.8.2 Daily Transfers

Each preparation day produces a positive transfer from the family office to the mission account.

Daily Transfer Range: USD $30,000–$420,000

The exact amount is dynamically determined.

These transfers represent the allocation of available family-office resources, not necessarily dividends or investment earnings generated on that particular day.

The transfer amount never becomes negative. However, the mission account balance can decrease because of strategic spending.

2.8.3 Extraordinary Financial Events

The system contains a catalog of 11 distinct extraordinary financial events.

Each event has its own narrative circumstances and scripted dialogue.

During any single campaign:

• Zero extraordinary events may occur.
• One extraordinary event may occur.
• A maximum of two extraordinary events may occur.
• An individual event cannot repeat in the same campaign.

The simulation must not guarantee an extraordinary event.

The possibility of receiving no extraordinary transfers is intentional.

2.8.4 Extraordinary Event Values

Extraordinary transfers are substantially larger than normal daily allocations.

Each event calculates its payment using a configurable financial base and a dynamic multiplier or equivalent formula.

The precise amount varies between campaigns.

The associated dialogue remains event-specific and scripted, although numerical references may be populated dynamically.

2.9 Indirect Exercise of Power

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2.9.1 General Principle

During the preparation phase, Edmund acts as a strategic decision-maker, not a field operative.

He authorizes operations through Hamish and the family's network of external contacts.

Execution takes place away from Edmund and outside the mansion.

The individuals performing the operational work do not ordinarily encounter Edmund personally.

The chapter must emphasize the distance between those who authorize consequential decisions and those who carry them out.

2.9.2 Characterization

Edmund's upbringing, his understanding of power and how his reactions to severe choices should reflect his limited experience of exercising it are described with him. See: Characters › Edmund.

2.9.3 Hamish as Strategic Adviser

What Hamish does as strategic adviser, and why his readiness to consider extreme alternatives is no change in his personality, are described with him. See: Characters › Hamish.

2.9.4 Ethical Decisions Without a Morality Meter

The game does not assign simplistic Good or Evil points to strategic choices.

Instead, decisions produce concrete consequences.

An operation may alter suspicion, intelligence, access, security, resources, or the state of the campaign.

The game does not need to declare whether Edmund is morally good or evil.

The player must interpret the meaning of Edmund's choices and live with their practical and narrative consequences.

2.9.5 Illustrative Scenario — The Retired General

One possible strategic branch involves seeking information from a retired Brazilian general familiar with restricted military matters.

An intermediary locates the general but fails to obtain his cooperation.

The general possesses influential contacts and could potentially alert other officials.

The player may be offered several responses, such as:

• Abandoning the approach.
• Increasing the financial offer.
• Seeking additional intelligence or alternative contacts.
• Authorizing an extreme clandestine response intended to permanently remove the perceived threat.

The system should not assume that any response is guaranteed to succeed.

A failed negotiation does not necessarily mean that the authorities learn of it.

An aggressive response may also introduce its own uncertainty and consequences.

The scenario's purpose and the detail it needs: See: Canon › Open Questions.

2.9.6 The Retired General Dialogue

Hamish: "I'm afraid our investigator has encountered a complication. The general refused the offer."

Edmund: "Then we find someone else."

Hamish: "We certainly could. Unfortunately, the gentleman is well connected. There is a possibility he may inform his former colleagues."

Edmund: "And what do you suggest?"

Hamish: "We have several options. We could abandon the approach, make another offer, or consider more severe measures."

Edmund: "You are suggesting that we have him killed?"

Hamish: "It is one of the options available to us, yes."

Edmund: "I see..."

Hamish: "Your responsibility is to determine what you are prepared to authorize, Edmund. The consequences of that decision will remain yours."

2.10 Military Limitations and the Mercenary Question

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2.10.1 Optional Strategic Conversation

During the preparation phase, Edmund may ask whether his fortune could be used to hire a private military force.

He suggests employing approximately fifty trained mercenaries to assist with entering Schwarzwald.

Hamish explains that he considered the possibility but rejected it.

There are two principal reasons.

2.10.2 Reason One — Overwhelming State Military Power

Schwarzwald is a state matter that involves two governments. See: Factions › Project Schwarzwald.

An overt attack involving hired soldiers could provoke a response from both countries.

Even a large private force might achieve some initial tactical success, but a sustained confrontation could escalate into an overwhelming military response.

The family does not possess the means to fight a prolonged war against two sovereign governments.

2.10.3 Reason Two — The Memetic Information Hazard

Friedrich explicitly instructed Hamish not to bring unprepared outsiders into the mission.

Edmund and Lorraine have spent their lives undergoing specialized preparation connected to the threats they may encounter.

Ordinary military experience does not make a person prepared for a memetic information hazard.

Additional personnel could become exposed to dangerous information and subsequently spread it beyond the installation.

This represents a potentially catastrophic risk.

Because the laboratory sequence has already explained the existence of the information hazard, this conversation reinforces known information rather than introducing it for the first time.

2.10.4 The Mercenary Dialogue

Edmund: "Hamish, what if we hired fifty men? Professional soldiers. Surely that would make entering the facility considerably easier."

Hamish: "I've considered it myself, Edmund. I'm afraid it would be a serious mistake."

Edmund: "Why? We can afford it."

Hamish: "Affording them is not the difficulty. We are dealing with a government installation involving Brazil and the United States."

Edmund: "And fifty men wouldn't be enough?"

Hamish: "Even a thousand wouldn't solve the problem. They might force their way through the outer defenses. But what would happen afterward?"

Edmund: "Reinforcements."

Hamish: "Precisely. Soldiers, armored vehicles, helicopters, intelligence services. We might win a skirmish, Edmund. We could not win a war against two governments."

Edmund: "I suppose you're right."

Hamish: "And there is another reason. Your father was very explicit about this: no outsiders were to accompany you on this mission."

Edmund: "Because of the information hazard?"

Hamish: "Precisely. You and Lorraine have been prepared for this since childhood. We have no way of knowing how fifty mercenaries would react to what they might encounter."

Lorraine: "And even if they survived, we couldn't guarantee what they might carry back with them."

Hamish: "Exactly. One individual exposed to the wrong information could compromise everything we're trying to prevent."

Edmund: "So bringing more people wouldn't necessarily make us safer."

Hamish: "Quite the opposite."

2.10.5 Gameplay Rule

The player cannot recruit a private army to accompany Edmund and Lorraine inside Schwarzwald.

However, external investigators, intermediaries, financial contacts, and other personnel may still perform narrowly defined activities outside the facility during the preparation phase.

The exclusion of additional personnel from the mission is both strategically and narratively justified.

2.11 Strategic Outcomes and Persistent Campaign Conditions

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2.11.1 Purpose

The decisions made during Chapter Two directly influence the conditions encountered later in the campaign.

The preparation system does not merely award resources or display success messages. It modifies the game world.

2.11.2 No Fixed Difficulty Selection

The system does not assign the player to one of three fixed outcomes such as Easy, Normal, or Hard.

Instead, the campaign receives a collection of strategic state variables.

Different combinations produce different circumstances.

2.11.3 Principal Campaign Variables

Possible persistent variables include:

Brazilian Military Alert
Influences troop readiness, patrol density, inspections, and security responses.

United States Military Involvement
Influences the timing and intensity of American military participation.

Surveillance Level
Influences surveillance equipment, observation coverage, and security arrangements.

Access Privileges
Represents documentation, permissions, or institutional arrangements obtained during preparation.

Prepositioned Supplies
Represents equipment or resources arranged in advance for possible later discovery or use.

Intelligence Acquired
Represents information obtained about the installation, its surroundings, and possible entry opportunities.

Operational Exposure
Represents the extent to which authorities suspect or understand that an unauthorized effort is underway.

2.11.4 Worst-Case Preparation Outcome

A player may make a series of unsuccessful or poorly judged decisions that alert Brazilian and American authorities.

The authorities may suspect that a foreign intelligence service, potentially from China or another country, has discovered sensitive information about the facility and is preparing an unauthorized approach.

They do not necessarily know that Edmund is responsible.

Nevertheless, they respond by strengthening security.

Possible consequences include:

• Increased Brazilian Army patrols.
• Earlier American military involvement.
• More surveillance equipment.
• Additional checkpoints.
• Higher suspicion during identity verification.
• Greater security readiness.
• Fewer useful logistical advantages.

This outcome makes the campaign substantially more difficult.

2.11.5 Best-Case Preparation Outcome

A highly effective preparation strategy may allow Edmund to secure several advantages while avoiding significant exposure.

Possible benefits include:

• Additional weapons or equipment arranged in advance.
• Useful intelligence concerning approaches to the installation.
• Reduced military presence in selected areas.
• Delayed arrival of American reinforcements.
• More favorable access arrangements.
• Lower security suspicion.

The campaign remains dangerous even under favorable conditions.

Financial influence cannot eliminate the horrors within Schwarzwald.

2.11.6 Mixed Outcomes

Most campaigns are expected to fall between the extremes.

A player may obtain excellent intelligence but cause a security alert.

Another may maintain perfect discretion while failing to secure equipment or access credentials.

The system should preserve such combinations rather than collapsing all results into a single difficulty score.

2.12 Strategic Capabilities Inherited from Chapter Two

Hamish cannot arbitrarily create influence after arriving in the jungle. The strategic actions available to him are determined primarily by contacts, arrangements, resources, intelligence, and partial successes established during the 28-day preparation period in Chapter Two.

For example, if Edmund managed to compromise or recruit officials within relevant military structures, Hamish may possess the means to request particular authorizations, administrative explanations, or limited changes in military activity. If those contacts were never established, the related action does not appear as an available strategic option.

A contact does not guarantee success. Interventions can consume money, time, favors, credibility, or opportunities, and their effectiveness may depend on the current military state.

2.12.1 Example — Legitimizing a Service Vehicle

Later in the expedition, a vehicle might need to cross an area observed by soldiers. If the relevant contacts exist, Hamish can try to have the movement recognized as an authorized equipment transfer. Soldiers who receive and accept the authorization may allow the vehicle through. This opportunity demonstrates the system; the truck's likely discovery and its central role in travel to A2 belong to Chapter Five, not a mandatory Chapter Four event.

2.12.2 Example — Suppressing an Investigation

If military personnel identify an intruder and initiate a search, Hamish may be able to mobilize earlier contacts to seek a correction, false-alarm classification, or cancellation of an official search order, including appropriate reporting to American counterparts when relevant.

The action does not erase the original sighting or delete witnesses' memories; it changes the institutional response. The campaign may allow only two or three such interventions, with a limited network of favors and no guaranteed success. The precise number and eligibility rules: See: Canon › Open Questions.

2.12.3 Capability Inheritance During the Expedition

Hamish's available interventions depend substantially on the outcomes of Chapter Two.

The player cannot automatically purchase a new military contact whenever an obstacle appears.

If Edmund failed to establish the necessary relationships during the preparation period, certain strategic options will not exist.

This limitation applies to truck movement authorizations, military investigation suppression, generator maintenance recognition, and other relevant interventions.

Hamish's influence is significant but neither unlimited nor guaranteed.

2.13 Hamish's Institutional Interventions

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2.13.1 Truck Movement Authorization

In Chapter Five, Hamish's military contacts may get the truck recognized as an authorized equipment transfer at the surface checkpoints. See: Campaign › 5. Mystery Base

2.13.2 Generator Maintenance Recognition

The player may be able to prevent military personnel from interfering with the generator through Hamish's contacts.

This possibility depends on the Strategic Preparation System established during Chapter Two.

If Edmund successfully cultivated relevant military contacts, Hamish may request that the generator's operation be recognized as part of an authorized maintenance activity.

This could involve administrative communication through the Brazilian military chain of command.

When the arrangement succeeds, soldiers who encounter the operating generator may consider it authorized and leave it running.

Edmund and Hamish discuss this intervention in Chapter Five. See: Campaign › 5. Mystery Base

This intervention is not guaranteed to succeed.

The possibility, cost, timing, and effectiveness depend on the existing strategic state and the influence actually established during the preparation period.

If Edmund lacks the relevant contacts, Hamish cannot offer this institutional solution.

The player can still attempt to operate the generator without authorization.

3. Player Feedback

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3.1 Qualitative Assessments

The player should not necessarily receive exact numerical probabilities.

Hamish may instead provide qualitative assessments based on the reliability and completeness of the available information.

A favorable assessment is not a guarantee.

3.2 Extraordinary Transfer Presentation

When an extraordinary transfer occurs, Edmund may question Hamish about the unexpected amount.

Edmund: "Another million dollars? What happened this time?"

Hamish: "A previously arranged corporate transaction has finally settled. Our financial office has released the corresponding funds to the mission account."

Different events may reference business transactions, investment settlements, intellectual property, or other sources.

4. Interactions

• The main quests that open the system, the mission budget and the 28-day preparation window belong to the chapter. See: Campaign › 2. Now I Am Finally A Man
• Hamish's support station and his role as the strategic companion in the field. See: Systems › Companions
• The variables Brazilian Military Alert and United States Military Involvement, and the searches that Hamish's contacts may suppress. See: Systems › Military Threat Levels
• The mercenary conversation assumes that the information hazard is already known. See: Systems › Information Hazard
• The truck that Hamish's contacts may legitimize. See: Systems › Vehicles
• The generator whose maintenance Hamish may have recognized. See: Campaign › 5. Mystery Base

5. Persistence

Once Edmund departs from Patagonia, the strategic state of the campaign is carried forward.

The office is no longer available as an operational headquarters during the principal Schwarzwald expedition.

The player cannot return to the mansion to revise earlier decisions.

Chapter Two therefore functions as the principal strategic preparation stage for the subsequent campaign.

6. Design Principles

The system should reinforce the scale of the family's wealth without reducing strategic decisions to unlimited spending.

Even Edmund's exceptional resources are subject to availability, operational constraints, uncertainty, and the finite preparation window.

7. Open Questions

The open items of this system, among them the event catalog, the general's dialogue, further variables and the number of interventions: See: Canon › Open Questions.